So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.įor the last reported quarter, it was expected that Nvidia would post earnings of $1.57 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.78, delivering a surprise of +13.38%.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Nvidia will beat the consensus EPS estimate.ĭoes Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Īnalysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%. How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Nvidia?įor Nvidia, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.Ī positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate.

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